中国彩票

40cr钢管-40cr无缝管-40cr合金管-42crmo无缝钢管-山东雷铭金属材料有限公司

下半年黑色系行情分化概率大

  • 所属:行业新闻
  • 时间:2019-07-01 08:50:54
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中国彩票XIABANNIANHEISEXIXINGQINGFENHUAGAILVDA

近期,40cr合金管厂端的环保限产加码打乱了黑色系原本的运行逻辑,市40cr合金管场预期突然转变,煤炭、40cr合金管材、铁矿石期货表现进一步分化。黑色系行情演绎逻辑是什么?对股期投资有何启示?本栏目邀请国投安信期货黑色产业首席分析师曹颖、西南期货高级研究员夏学钊对此进行分析。


ZHONGGUOZHENGQUANBAO:RUHEKANDAIJINQIMEIJIAO40crHEJINGUANCHANYELIANJIAGEYUNXINGLUOJI?


中国彩票CAOYING:JINQIHEISEJINSHUCHANYELIANDESHICHANGJIAODIANZHUYAOZAIYU40crHEJINGUANCHANGDUANDEHUANBAOXIANCHANJIAMA,DAOZHICHANYEJIAGELUOJICONGLIAN40crHEJINGUANLIRUNSHOUSUOZHUANBIANDAOLIAN40crHEJINGUANLIRUNKUOZHANGSHANGLAI。SHANGBANNIANZAIFANGDICHANXINKAIGONGBIAOXIANJIAOHAO、JIJIANXUNSUFALIDEHONGGUANHUANJINGXIA,JIANZHU40crHEJINGUANCAIDEXIAYOUXUQIUBIAOXIANQIANGYUYUQI,DUIMEIJIAO40crHEJINGUANSHICHANGXINGCHENGYIDINGTIZHEN。DANJINRUXIABANNIAN,FANGDICHANJIJIJIANJINYIBUFALIDEQUDONGLILIANGYUJIYAOKAISHIZOURUO。


CONGJIJIEXINGLAIKAN,6-8YUEJIANZHU40crHEJINGUANCAIXUQIUSHOUGAOWENDUOYUTIANQIYINGXIANGDAGAILVHUANBIZOURUO,YINCI40crHEJINGUANCAIJIAGEZI6YUEKAISHICHUXIANJIEDUANXINGDINGBU,ZHIHOUDIAOTOUXIANGXIA。DANYUANCAILIAODUAN,BAXIKUIBASHIGUDEYINGXIANGZHUJIANTIXIANDAOFAYUNLIANGXIAJIANGSHANG,SUOYITIEKUANGSHIJIAGEZHANGZHI100MEIYUANYISHANGHOUYIZHIJUGAOBUXIA。ERJIAOTANSHOUDAOSHANXISHENGJIAOHUAXINGYEHUANBAOXIANCHANJIQUCHANNENGDENGSHIJIANYUQIYINGXIANG,JIAGETONGYANGYEBIJIAOKANGDIE。SUOYI,ZONGHEZHIXIADAOZHITIESHUICHENGBENDAFUTAISHENG,DIEJIA40crHEJINGUANJIAHUILUO,PINGJUNLIAN40crHEJINGUANLIRUNJIUCONG600YUAN/DUNZUOYOUKUAISUHUILUOZHI200YUAN/DUNZUOYOUDEDIWEISHUIPING。


中国彩票DAN6YUEDI,TANGSHANSHIYOUGUANBUMENFAWENTICHU,YAOYU7YUEFENDUI40crHEJINGUANTIEQIYEZHIXINGQIANGLIDUHUANBAOXIANCHAN,HENKUAIJIANGDAPOHEISEJINSHUCHANYELIANDEYUANYOUGONGXUGEJU。GENJUYAOQIU,JIXIAOPINGJIALEIQIYEXIANCHAN20%(SHEJILIANTIECHANNENG2417WANDUN),QIYUQIYEXIANCHAN50%(SHEJILIANTIECHANNENGYUE1.28YIDUN),GAOLUYAOJINXINGBALUTINGCHAN。ERJIEZHI28RIDEZHIXINGQINGKUANGLAIKAN,TANGSHANSHIGAOLUYIYOU64ZUOCHUYUJIANXIU,JIANXIURONGJI57060LIFANGMI,YINGXIANGTIESHUIRICHANZONGLIANGYUE15.84WANDUN,GAOLUCHANNENGLIYONGLV41.05%,JIAOQIANZHOUDAJIANG39.3%。RUCIDALIANGDEGONGYINGXIAJIANG,YIXIAZINIUZHUANLESHICHANGDUI40crHEJINGUANCAIJIAGEYIJILIAN40crHEJINGUANLIRUNYUQI,GOUCHENGLEJINQIHEISEJINSHUCHANYELIANYUNXINGDEZHUYAOLUOJI。


XIAXUEZHAO:TANGSHANXIANCHANYINGGAISHIDANGQIANSHICHANGDEJIAODIANYINSU,XIANCHANCUOSHIZHENGZHUBULUODI。JIEHETANGSHANDIQU40crHEJINGUANTIECHANNENG、DANGQIANKAIGONGQINGKUANGJIXIANCHANBILIHEXIANCHANSHIZHANGKEYITUISUAN,ZHENGCEYANGEZHIXINGHOUHUOJIANGZAOCHENGRIJUN10WANDUN-15WANDUNDE40crHEJINGUANTIECHANLIANGSUOJIAN,ZHEISHIBURONGHUSHIDEYINGXIANG。GONGYINGYASUODEBEIJINGXIA,XIAYOUXUQIUBIAOXIANSHANGKE。


QUANGUOJIANCAIMAOYISHANGCHENGJIAOLIANGSHUJUXIANSHI,6YUEFENYILAI,QUANGUOJIANCAICHENGJIAOLIANGRIJUNZHIWEI19.22WANDUNZUOYOU,GAOYUQUNIAN6YUEFENDERIJUNZHI17.79WANDUN,LVEDIYUJINNIAN5YUEFENDERIJUNZHI19.72WANDUN。YEJIUSHISHUO,LUOWEN40crHEJINGUANXUQIUBAOCHIGAORENXING,JINNIANDEXUQIUBUJINGAOYUQUNIAN,ERQIE6YUEFENYILAIDANJIXIAOYINGBINGBUMINGXIAN。XUQIUWENDING、GONGYINGSHOUSUO,40crHEJINGUANCAIQIHUOJIAGEHUORENGYOUSHANGXINGKONGJIAN。


TIEKUANGSHIQIANQIQIANGSHIDEQUDONGLILAIZIYUGONGXULIANGDUAN,TANGSHANXIANCHANZHISHIJIANSHAOLETIEKUANGSHIXUQIU,ERQIEZHEIZHONGXUQIUJIANLIANGMUQIANKANLAIBINGBUSUANDA,JISHITANGSHANXIANCHANANZHAOCHU TAIDEZHENGCEYANGEZHIXING,TIEKUANGSHIXUQIUJIANLIANGDAZHIZAIWULIUBAIWANDUN,ERTIEKUANGSHIGANGKOUKUCUNZINIANCHUXIAJIANGDEFUDUZAI3000WANDUNZUOYOU。HUANJUHUASHUO,TANGSHANXIANCHANZAOCHENGDETIEKUANGSHIXUQIUJIANLIANGBUZUYINIZHUANTIEKUANGSHIZHENGTIDEGONGXUGEJU,GUERTIEKUANGSHIRENGRANPIANQIANG。


中国彩票JIAOTANYUANYUEHEYUEZOUQIANGZHUYAOYESHIJIYUHUANBAOXIANCHANYUQI,DANZHEIZHONGYUQIKENENGHUIBEIZHENGWEI,ERYANQIAN40crHEJINGUANCHANGDEXIANCHANDUIYUJIAOTANLAISHUOSHISHISHIZAIZAIDEXUQIUWEISUO,GUERJIAOTANHOUQIZOUSHIKENENGXIANGDUIQITALIANGGEPINZHONGPIANRUO。


ZHONGGUOZHENGQUANBAO:TIEKUANGSHI、MEITAN、40crHEJINGUANTIEQIHUOJIAGEYUXIANGGUANGUPIAOJIAGELIANDONGQINGKUANGRUHE?


曹颖:国内铁矿石矿山多为40cr合金管厂的权益矿,基本没有国产矿山所单独对应的国内上市公司。而40cr合金管铁行业与煤炭行业的上市企业虽然不少,但行业在供给侧改革的前几年经历了长期的大幅亏损,产能过度扩张也给行业内企40cr合金管业带来了大量负债,因此即使2016年以来供给侧改革给40cr合金管铁企业及煤炭企业带来了高利润的去杠杆行情,但煤炭、40cr合金管铁股表现却不佳,估值一直很低,主要因为市场仍不看好煤炭、40cr合金管铁行业的长期需求以及供给端变动的持续性。因此煤炭、40cr合金管铁期现货价格与相关股票价格联动关系不是很好,反倒是规模较小、包袱不重的焦炭上市公司股票价格与现实的炼焦利润波动联动性比较一致。


XIAXUEZHAO:SHANGPINJIAGEBODONGZHIJIEYINGXIANGDESHIGAISHANGPINSHENGCHANZHEDESHOURUQINGKUANG,ERGUPIAOJIAGEFANYINGDESHISHANGSHIGONGSIDELIRUNBIANHUA,YINGSHOUBIANHUAHELIRUNZHUANGKUANGSUIRANMIQIEXIANGGUANDANBINGBUDENGTONG。CHUGONGSIZISHENDELIRUNBIANHUAZHIWAI,GUPIAOJIAGEHAISHOUDAOHONGGUANJINGJIZHOUQI、SHICHANGFENGXIANPIANHAO、ZIJINLIUDONGXINGDENGZHUDUOFANGMIANYINSUDEYINGXIANG。GUER,HUISULISHIKEYIFAXIAN,SHANGPINQIHUOJIAGEYUXIANGGUANSHANGSHIGONGSIGUPIAOJIAGEDEZOUSHIWANGWANGCHUXIANPIANLI。


TIEKUANGSHIQIHUOJINNIANZOUCHUNIUSHI,ZHEIJIANGDUIGUOCHANKUANGSHANSHANGSHIGONGSIGUPIAOGOUCHENGLIDUO,DANYEZHISHIQIZHONGYIGEYINSUERYI。TANGSHANXIANCHANKENENGTUISHENG40crHEJINGUANCAIQIHUOJIAGE,40crHEJINGUANTIEBANKUAILIRUNHUOJIANGCHUXIANHUISHENG,DANYEZHISHIYIGELIDUOYINSUERYI。


ZHONGGUOZHENGQUANBAO:DUIXIABANNIANHEISEXITOUZIYOUHEJIANYI?


中国彩票CAOYING:HUANBAOXIANCHANDEJIEDUANXINGSHOUJIN,BINGQIESHOUJINCHENGDUQIANSUOWEIYOU,BIRANHUITUIDONG40crHEJINGUANCAIQIXIANHUOJIAGEXINGCHENGYIBOSHANGZHANGQUSHI。SUIRANDANGQIANXIAYOU40crHEJINGUANCAIXUQIUCHUYUXIANGDUIDANJI,DANYOUYUJINNIANCHUNJIEYILAI,40crHEJINGUANCAIMAOYISHANGYIZHIJIAOWEILIXING,BINGWEIJINXINGGUODUODETOUJIXINGDUNKU,YINCI40crHEJINGUANCAISHEHUIKUCUNLEIJIDEYALIBINGBUDA。NEIMEZHEIYIBOXINGQING,40crHEJINGUANCAIMAOYISHANGJIUJIANGTIQIANYUZHONGDUANXUQIUDEHAOZHUAN,ZHULI40crHEJINGUANJIAJIAGESHANGXING。YUANCAILIAOZEHUIXIANGDUI40crHEJINGUANCAIBIAOXIANRUODEDUO,BIJINGYITANGSHANWEIZHUDAODEGAOLUJIANCHAN,HUIDAOZHI40crHEJINGUANCHANGDUITIEKUANGSHI、JIAOTANDENGYUANCAILIAODEXUQIUTONGBILIXIAHUA。DANZAILIAN40crHEJINGUANLIRUNKUOZHANGDEZHOUQIZHONG,BUXIANCHANDE40crHEJINGUANCHANGYEDUIYUANCAILIAOJIAGERONGRENDUZENGJIA,DANDUKANKONGYUANCAILIAOJIAGEYEBINGBUYIDINGZHENGQUE。HAIXUYAOTIXING,XIABANNIAN40crHEJINGUANCAIXIAYOUXUQIUDEBIAOXIANYIRANCUNZAIFENGXIANDIAN。FANGDICHANXINKAIGONGDIAOTOUXIANGXIA,XIANGMUGONGDIGANGONGYUQIYIJICHUKOUDUANKENENGSHOUDAODEJINYIBURAODONG,DOUKENENGDAOZHIHUANBAOXIANCHANHOUDEGAO40crHEJINGUANJIAZHONGXINCHENGYA。


夏学钊:下半年黑色系或将在需求40cr合金管中国彩票面临下行压力和供给受政策影响而间歇收缩的逻辑之间不断切换,40cr合金管材期货价格或将呈现宽幅震荡格局,铁矿石基本面仍然最强,焦炭在环保政策实施前仍可能表现最弱。


BUTONGLEIXINGDETOUZIZHEXUYAOZHAODAOHESHIZIJIDETOUZICELVE。


DUIYUTOUJIZHEERYAN,ZHENDUILUOWEN40crHEJINGUANQIHUO,JIANYIZAIDIDIAN(3500YUAN/DUNYIXIA)SHIZUODUOWEIZHU,ZAIGAODIANSHIZUOKONG(4200YUAN/DUNYISHANG)WEIZHU;DANBUJIANYIZUOSIDUOTOUHUOZHESIKONGTOU,ERYINGGAIGENJUJISHUMIANDEBIANHUAHECHANYEXINXIDEGENZONGJUEDINGZUOKONGHUOZHEZUODUO,ZHUYICANGWEIKONGZHI,BINGSHEHAOZHISUNWEI。


对于卖出套保者而言,建议积极参与,特别是反弹至阶段高位时,应提高套保比例;对于买入套保者而言,因二季度可能仍会出现阶段性上涨,建议买入套保者也应参与。对于套利者而言,可以关注品种间的套利机会,比如基于40cr合金管限产的做多螺焦比值套利、基于需求差异的做空卷螺价差机会等;同品种的套利,可关注正套机会。(来源:中国证券报)


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